FARGO, N.D., JULY 14, 2025 — Border States has published the following commodity update.
Commodity Trends
Copper enters tariff spotlight with a 50% rate
President Trump announced that he will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports and suggested that additional sector-specific tariffs are expected at the end of July.
Why it matters: The move aims to boost domestic production and align copper tariffs with those on steel and aluminum, but it could severely impact American manufacturers reliant on imported copper, as nearly half of the copper used by domestic factories is from international suppliers.
- Shares for domestic producers rose and futures jumped 13% on July 9, the biggest single day jump since 1989.
- New York futures traded 25% higher than global rates.
- This morning, copper opened at $5.45.
Zoom out: In late February, Trump signed an executive order directing the Department of Commerce to investigate potential tariffs on copper imports (raw mined copper, concentrated, alloy, scrap and derivative products). As a response — Chile, Canada and Peru — three of the largest copper suppliers to the United States, sent letters to U.S. officials opposing the investigation and arguing that their exports should be exempt from any potential tariffs.
The copper import tariff is separate from reciprocal tariffs, the 10% baseline tariff and the recently announced higher rates on over a dozen countries beginning on August 1.
More copper news: India announced plans to boost copper production by offering incentives for foreign investments and domestic investments in overseas mining. With limited reserves, India — the world’s second-largest importer of refined copper — is projected to import 91–97% of its copper concentrates by 2047 due to rising demand.
Aluminum tariffs’ global impact
Aluminum markets are feeling the strain from heightened U.S. tariffs, prompting industry leaders to call for negotiations and government support. Aluminum opened at $1.86 today.
Canada is considering financial assistance for its major aluminum producers if the United States maintains its 50% tariffs. In India, the steep tariffs make it difficult for businesses to compete in the U.S. market while they are already struggling in their domestic market against cheaper goods from China.
- Last week, the United States announced it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods that do not comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement starting Friday, August 1 — a 10% increase from the 25% rate imposed earlier this year.
- Canada’s aluminum industry says it would need financial support if the government cannot reach a deal with the United States by July 21.
- With about half of U.S. aluminum sourced from Canada, the 50% tariffs present a major challenge. While major Canadian producers aren’t facing immediate cash flow issues, they expect long-term financial strain if the tariffs persist.
- India exported approximately $4.5 billion worth of aluminum, steel and iron goods to the United States last year. Exporters report canceled orders and payment delays due to ongoing tariff uncertainty.
The United States and India are reported to be close to reaching a trade deal.
Steel tariff weighs on oil and gas
The U.S. oil and gas sector contracted slightly in Q2, as higher steel tariffs weighed on drilling activity in Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico.
Why it matters: The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has driven up costs, leading some firms to scale back plans and drill fewer wells in 2025.
The big picture: Despite a record high in crude oil production, the sector faces pressure from rising input costs, an oversupply of oil, and potential lower customer demand over the next year.
More steel news
- British steelmakers are on edge as negotiations continue for a full exemption from U.S. steel tariffs. In June, the United Kingdom and United States agreed to reduce the tariff on K. steel imports to 25%, but the British government is still pushing for a full exemption.
- Countries that have received letters from the Trump administration, including Japan and South Korea, are continuing to push for better deals on exports after the deadline was pushed to Friday, August 1. Exports like automobiles, auto parts and machine parts are critical for their economies, and officials are seeking lower rates before the new tariffs take effect.
- Malaysia has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on certain galvanized steel imports from China, South Korea and Vietnam, following an investigation launched in February. The duties will be effective for up to 120 days, with a final decision expected by Monday, November 3.
PVC prices stay down
PVC prices continued a downward trend. PVC manufactuers report strong inventory, aside from larger diameter pipes and special radius bends, which have a lead time of about three weeks.
News roundup
President Trump announced a 30% tariff will be imposed on imports from the European Union and Mexico starting Friday, August 1. The new tariffs would replace existing 10% baseline tariffs on most European Union goods and the 25% tariff on non-U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) compliant Mexican goods. It’s not certain whether Mexico’s USMCA-compliant goods will continue to be exempt.
The Trump administration said it plans to impose a 10% tariff on BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates. The group’s leaders met in Brazil in early July and criticized U.S. trade policies.
The United States added 147,000 jobs in June. Job growth was concentrated in the government and healthcare sectors while manufacturing and related fields fell flat.
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) officials seem to be divided during their June meeting about how aggressively they would cut interest rates and balance tariff concerns against economic indicators. The Fed will meet again on Tuesday and Wednesday, July 29 and 30.
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