FARGO, N.D., OCTOBER 13, 2025 — Border States has published the following commodity update.
Commodity Trends
Copper supply disruption shakes forecasts
Analysts have lowered global copper supply forecasts for the rest of this year and next year, following a natural disaster incident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, where seven workers lost their lives. The incident has led to a cut in sales forecasts and a sharp increase in copper prices.
Chile’s Codelco reduced its 2025 production forecast after a natural disaster incident at its El Teniente mine in August, resulting in six lives lost. The company reported a drop in output of more than 30,000 tons.
Why it matters: The incidents at two of the world’s top copper mines not only disrupt immediate supply but also pose long-term challenges for the global market.
Bank of America raised its copper price forecasts, citing setbacks, such as mine disruptions and resilient global demand from renewable energy and AI infrastructure, estimating an average increase of more than 11% in the next two years.
Yes, but investments are being made to secure copper production, including BHP’s $555 million in its operations in South Australia, aiming to double the state’s copper output by the mid-2030s. In the United States, a multi-metal recycling plant launched in Georgia, where it will produce primarily recycled copper from households and scrapyards.
More mining news: Experts warn that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown may delay U.S.-based mining projects that require multi-agency approval, like permitting and coordination, to proceed. This morning, copper opened at $5.05. Total inventories in October rose to more than 45,000 tons compared to last month.
Aluminum demand drops in parts of North America
Aluminum demand in the United States and Canada fell 4.4% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, according to a report. This was driven by a decrease in domestic shipments and significant increases in aluminum scrap and imports.
By the numbers:
- Demand reached an estimated 13 billion pounds through June 2025, down 4.4% from the 13.7 billion pounds in the previous year.
- Producer shipments from the American and Canadian facilities decreased 4.5% year over year through June.
- Aluminum scrap inventory has increased 14.7%, so far, this year driven by tariff policies encouraging scrap use.
- Aluminum opened at $2.05 this morning.
Why it matters: The report shows broader challenges facing the aluminum industry, including the impact of trade policies.
What they’re saying: The Aluminum Association argues that the Trump administration’s trade policies, including the 50% aluminum tariff, can undo a decade of gains and calls for a targeted approach that safeguards jobs and competitiveness.
U.S. steel imports fell in August
The United States’ total steel imports fell 16.8% in August from the previous month, and finished steel imports also fell 16.8% from last month, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.
Zoom in: Year-to-date figures show total and finished steel imports are down 7% and 10.6%, respectively, compared to 2024. The decline reflects shifts happening in the U.S. steel market, influenced by trade dynamics and demand.
Federal government agencies are unable to operate at full capacity due to the U.S. government shutdown, affecting the steel industry, which relies on the Department of Commerce’s steel import license data to monitor imports in real time.
Why it matters: Experts warn that the missing data could bring a surge of steel shipments into U.S. markets undetected, leading to unfair trade practices and overproduction of steel — a key challenge the industry already faces.
More steel news:
- The Trump administration intervened to block a decision to stop processing raw steel at U.S. Steel’s Granite City Works plant in Illinois, leveraging its share from the national security deal with Nippon Steel. The provision gives the federal government influence over certain domestic production decisions, enabling it to prevent the company from closing the plant.
- China’s steel exports are set to reach a record high this year, despite predictions trade barriers would drive down its shipments. Exports are forecasted to increase from 4% to 9% this year, between 115 million and 120 million metric tons. The drive reflects worry among steelmakers in China that trade barriers will continue to rise.
- The European Commission will cut steel import quotas by nearly 50% and increase duties on excess volumes to 50% in line with American and Canadian tariffs. The measures aim to protect the European Union’s steel industry from overcapacity, particularly due to subsidized production from China.
PVC manufacturers report healthy stock levels
PVC prices continued their slight downward trend, despite attempts to push price increases into the market amid rising labor and transportation costs.
What they’re saying: Manufacturers are reporting healthy stock levels, apart from large diameter and special radius bends, which have lead-times of approximately 3 to 4 weeks.
News roundup
The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by a quarter-point in September. The benchmark rate is now set at 4% to 4.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the decision reflected low job growth and other evidence of the labor market softening. However, Fed Bank of Boston President, Susan Collins, cautions against swift rate cuts due to the risks posed by inflation. This is the first rate cut since December 2024, and the Fed is projected to cut rates twice more this year. The Fed will meet again on Tuesday and Wednesday, October 28 and 29.
The Trump administration has been reviewing Biden-era loans for clean-energy projects and has secured a 5% stake in Lithium Americas, a Canada-based mining company, and another 5% stake in its lithium mine in Nevada. Lithium Americas has been in negotiations with the U.S. Department of Energy and General Motors to restructure the terms of its $2.26 billion government loan for the Nevada mine. Other deals the Trump administration has made include securing a share in U.S. Steel as part of Nippon Steel’s purchase of the domestic company.
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