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Health Care Reform Vote Could Come Next Week

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Palmer Schoening, President of Schoening Strategies and Chairman of the Family Business Coalition, is providing tED magazine with an update on decisions coming from Washington, D.C. that will impact our supply chain. This week he sees significant movement on the repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act and the framework for a budget vote in early July.

Senate ObamaCare vote may be on June 28. “I expect us to vote on it next week,” Sen. Richard M. Burr (R-NC) told reporters yesterday. A bill would have to be released from closed door Senate Republican deliberations this week for that to happen, and I doubt the Senate could pass it, as the House did, without a Congressional Budget Office score. It remains to be seen if Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) can gather together a majority vote in the 52R-48D Senate. Things are minute to minute according to Sen. McConnell's senior aides.

FY18 budget resolution mark-ups yet to be scheduled. The House Budget Committee had been expected to mark-up this Thursday, but now that's off according to a committee spokesman as reported by Bloomberg BNA. Last month, the word was that both the House and Senate Budget Committees would mark-up in June. GOP leaders had strong hopes of moving their health care bills and the FY18 budget resolution by July 4th to clear the way for appropriations and tax reform, but that appears to have slipped.

“Blue-State Republicans Ask Treasury to Keep Deduction of State and Local Tax.” Yesterday, seven House Republicans and 63 Democrats wrote Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to say, “…Faced with an already high tax burden and high cost of living, our communities cannot afford another increase…”

Georgia 6 toss-up race may be mildly predictive, but a lot will happen before the 2018 election. The first thing to know is that special elections can be mildly predictive of upcoming national elections, but only in truly competitive districts, not in “safe” districts, as analyzed in this 2009 research note by University of Texas at Dallas Professors Tom Brunell and David Smith. Georgia 6 fits that definition, but it is not like any other district won by President Trump in 2016 because Georgia 6 tops those districts in its high proportion of college educated voters. Personalities and local issues still matter the most but pGeorgia 6 is special because of the $50 m. expended and all the national attention, which is expected to boost turnout from the 192,084 who voted in the April 18 primary to about 250,000. Just over 143,000 voted early by mail before the Alexandria, VA shooting.

South Carolina 5 safely Republican. There's another special election today as previewed in yesterday's Wall Street Journal article. Democrats held the seat from reconstruction until 2010 when now OMB director Mick Mulvaney won. None of the special elections are likely to tell us much about November of 2018. A week is a long time in politics.

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