Publisher’s Note: NAED will be hosting the 2020 Electrical Industry Post-Election Conference next Tuesday, November 10. The event will provide further analysis of the election results specifically aimed at our supply chain. You can register to attend the event at www.naed.org/postelection. – S.C.
NAED consultant Alex Ayers provided tED magazine an update on the election results, as of 11:30 a.m. Central time on Wednesday, November 4:
After a late-night declaration by President Trump that he was winning in the states he needed to secure a victory, more of the legally cast ballots have been counted and now Former Vice President Joe Biden is leading in two critical states, Michigan and Wisconsin. According to multiple news sources President Trump currently has 213 electoral votes compared to Biden’s 224 and 270 are needed to win. The remaining states:
- Alaska – 3 votes – Trump likely to win
- Arizona – 11 votes – Biden likely to win
- Georgia – 16 votes – Toss-up
- Maine – 4 votes – 3 to Biden, 1 to Trump
- Michigan – 16 votes – Toss-up
- Nevada – 6 votes – Biden likely to win
- North Carolina – 15 votes – Toss-up
- Pennsylvania – 20 votes – Toss-up
- Wisconsin – 10 votes – Toss-up
Based on the likely to win, Biden leads 244 to Trump’s 217. Needing only 24 electoral votes, that means Biden needs to win only two of the five remaining toss-ups and, as votes have been counted, he has taken the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Final official vote tallies remain days away, but at this point, it is an easier path to victory for Former Vice President Biden than President Trump.
In addition to the Presidential race, 35 Senate seats were up for grabs last night and currently the votes put both parties tied at 47 seats, but in good news for Republicans, their candidates lead in five of the remaining elections and the sixth, with the Georgia special election going to a runoff in January. Democrats spent hundreds of millions of dollars on Senate races across the board, but their pickups in Arizona and Colorado are likely to be traded with Republican pickups in Alabama and Michigan. Depending on how these races shake out as the remaining votes are cast, the runoff in Georgia could see even more millions poured in to determine the majority in the Senate.
On the House side, it was predicted that Democrats would hold the House of Representatives, and it does look like that will be true, but the majority could shrink to the smallest margin in 20 years. So far Republicans have flipped seven seats while Democrats have only flipped two, with 56 seats left to tally. Many Democrats believed they would expand their majority in this election, but the loss of seats could put House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in the hotseat for her strong-arm negotiation style over the past months regarding the next coronavirus relief bill. If enough members believe the losses were because of Pelosi’s refusal to negotiate, it could lead to a new bill sooner rather than later in the lame duck.
If the current vote margins in the Presidential and Senate races remain, we will be looking at a Biden Presidency, Republican Senate, and Democratic House. President Biden would have to work with the Republican Senate to enact his legislative priorities. Senate Republicans did work with President Obama on several packages that raised taxes. These agreements were mostly against the backdrop of expiring tax relief. Luckily, most of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changes are locked in place through the end of the next Presidential term. Provided Senator Majority leader Mitch McConnell doesn’t face too much pressure from vulnerable members to make a grand bargain with President Biden, he will be forced to find a way to slow down and likely kill most progressive messaging legislation coming from the House.
Having the Presidency in Democratic hands will likely mean a return to fighting more burdensome regulations through most federal agencies. President Biden, under pressure from a Democratic party hungry for substantive wins, will likely test the limits of executive power on climate, social justice, and economic issues.
With thousands of ballots still remaining to be counted these races could change, but this is the most likely outcome based on what we are seeing right now.
Tagged with Biggest News, election
Good insight on where things stand! From an industry publication, I was surprised to see the negative connotations associated with a Biden win. Doesn’t the electrical industry stand to benefit from stronger green energy investment (LED’s, alternative energy, building efficiency all require electrical parts and labor)? Aren’t our union contractors stronger under democratic leadership?
As an owner of an independent wholesaler and fiscal conservative, I appreciated the significant tax benefits of the TCJA, but not at the expense of a trillion dollar deficit. Our industry as a whole will be better off with government funds for investment in infrastructure and low interest rates due to a strong treasury. Instead, the money is going into my pocket. I don’t consider our industry “lucky” to have the TCJA benefits continue. Sorry, it just doesn’t trickle down.