FARGO, N.D., June 16, 2025 — Border States is committed to keeping you updated on current supply chain trends, including material constraints, inflationary price pressures and other market impacts. We continue to work diligently to provide you with the most current information possible, knowing this information could change at any point.
We continue to see resiliency challenges with our supply chain, driven by ongoing global armed conflicts; geopolitical actions, including tariffs and negotiations; high interest rates to combat inflation; and economic/demand uncertainty. Prices remain volatile due to continued commodity volatility and tariff impacts. While wage growth, freight costs, and labor participation remain stable, we expect ongoing global inflation will continue to drive price pressures this year across each of our core markets.
Lead Time Trends
Lead time changes over the last 12 months:
| Market | Difference |
| Natural gas/PVF | -37% |
| Utility | -37% |
| Industrial | -32% |
| Construction | -25% |
Global container prices rise as small trucking carriers exit
Global container shipping prices jumped more than 70% in the past month primarily due to ongoing U.S.-China trade talks.
- In May, U.S. container imports fell approximately 10% since April and down 7% from the previous year.
- Exports out of China to the United States sank 35% year over year in May, making it the biggest drop since February 2020.
- Total import volumes remain 4% above prepandemic 2019 levels.
Small carriers are exiting the trucking market due to a two-year down period.
- Capacity has tightened with load-to-truck ratios showing a 70% increase for flatbeds and 30% increase for dry vans.
- Diesel fuel prices are down 20 cents per gallon compared to last year.
- Oil and gas prices are expected to remain low yet volatile into 2025, driven by ongoing tariffs, trade negotiations and geopolitics.
Labor and inflation results bolster predictions of interest rates holding in June
The United States added 139,000 jobs in May, slightly lower than previous months yet above the expectations of 125,000 jobs created. Unemployment remained at 4.2%. The labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4% from 62.6%.
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) still faces pressure to cut interest rates, while it continues to hold rates steady. The Fed will meet again on Tuesday, June 17 and Wednesday, June 18.
The Consumer Price Index narrowly rose 0.1% in May, lower than what economists predicted, setting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. The Producer Price Index also rose 0.1% in May, lifting the annual rate to 2.6%.
Steel and aluminum tariffs doubled to 50%
Aluminum and steel tariff imports doubled from 25% to 50% on June 4. President Trump announced the increase the week prior during a steel rally.
Why it matters: The move aimed to bolster domestic production but faced criticism for potentially intensifying global trade dynamics. Many steel and aluminum producers are planning significant investments in new production capacity in the United States.
The commodity landscape has fluctuated due to ongoing geopolitical events, trade policies and supply and demand factors.
- Copper prices briefly rose to above $5 per pound. The mining industry is facing several environmental and social
- With the onset of construction season, PVC resin prices have seen modest increases, but year-over-year prices remain down.
- Lumber prices declined by approximately $590 per thousand board foot in early June, driven by supply surplus and dwindling demand.
- Crude oil prices are being impacted by rising tensions in the Middle East.